ISM
[Skip to the end] Agreed. We could see positive growth for while without much improvement in final demand, supported longer term by government, exports, and investment. Equity markets strong, better...
View ArticleCPI
Can’t resist the temptation to repeat my suspicions that zero interest rate policy is deflationary from the supply and the demand side. :) Karim writes: Great number for low for long camp; gives Fed...
View ArticleBernanke speech
Karim writes: Very substantive speech from Bernanke Message is basically, ‘growth has slowed more than we expected’ BUT ‘conditions are ALREADY in place for a pick-up’ and if we are wrong, we are...
View ArticleData Recap from Karim
Karim writes: The overall income numbers held up well for November despite the weak payroll number; momentum building for consumer spending; capex staged solid rebound Personal income up 0.3% Real...
View ArticleISM-Strong
Karim writes: * Headline came in as expected, but details strong. * Gap between new orders and inventories (which declined sharply for both suppliers and customers) at highest since May 2010. *...
View ArticleClaims/Durables/GDP
Karim says: CLAIMS Labor Dept cites delayed filings in 4 states (Georgia, Alabama, North and South Carolina) as cause for 51k back-up in claims. Those states probably depressed prior number, so current...
View ArticleFOMC Statement(3 dissents)
Karim writes: Pretty tepid response in light of the changed assessment of current conditions and outlook. No hike thru early 2013 was already priced, so stating that they are unlikely to hike thru...
View ArticleRetail Sales and euro dynamics
Agreed. Fundamentally, the 8%+ US federal budget deficit continues to support sufficient aggregate demand for modest GDP growth. Market participants don’t seem to understand this and were discounting a...
View ArticlePayrolls and a Fed rant
Utter failure of policy. The Fed was certain it knew what Japan had done wrong and wasn’t going to make THOSE mistakes. So it Cut rates much more aggressively. Said it would do whatever it takes....
View ArticleCredit spillovers from Eur banks to EM
Makes sense. I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated. Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction. Karim writes: Interesting table from JPM. Much larger...
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